០៥ តុលា ២០១៩ / 05 October 2019
មានការស្ទង់មតិមួយ ដែល ហ៊ុន សែន បានបញ្ជាឲ្យធ្វើដោយសម្ងាត់ បង្ហាញថា នៅពេល សម រង្ស៊ី មកដល់ប្រទេសកម្ពុជា ៖
- ប្រជាពលរដ្ឋប្រមាណ ២ លាននាក់ នឹងមកទទួលស្វាគមន៍ សម រង្ស៊ី។
- ក្នុងចំណោមប្រជាពលរដ្ឋ ដែលគេសួរយោបល់ក្នុងការស្ទង់មតិនេះ ៩៨ ភាគរយ ជឿជាក់ថា នឹងមានការងើបឈរប្រឆាំងរដ្ឋអំណាចសព្វថ្ងៃ។
- ៦៥ ភាគរយ នៃកងកម្លាំងប្រដាប់អាវុធ នឹងងើបឈរដែរ ក្នុងការប្រឆាំងរដ្ឋអំណាចសព្វថ្ងៃ។
Leaked opinion poll:
- 2 million people will turn up to welcome Sam Rainsy's return.
- 98 % of those surveyed think there will be popular uprising on that occasion.
- 65 % of the armed forces will join the popular uprising.
ONLY HE CAN RESCUE HUN SEN
មានតែគាត់ទេ ដែលអាចសង្គ្រោះ ហ៊ុន សែន បាន
Now that the world leaves him out in the cold, Hun Sen is alone to fence off all assaults on his authority from both outside and inside the government.
Against outside foes, Hun Sen opts for a violent showdown. He has carried out his promise to smash every single opponent, perceived or otherwise, that pops up in his face. To date, 165 CNRP members have been summoned to court, 30 thrown in jail, one death in custody, physical assaults by hit and run assailants, and countless are in hiding. The numbers are mounting.
Nevertheless, it is puzzling if he is trying to prove right leaked outcomes of a series of market research he has commissioned since Sam Rainsy announced his 9/11 return, or if he just too anxiously reacts to the outcomes that he assumes are reliable.
The leaked research information paints a gloomy prospect for Hun Sen, which should not be surprising given what Hun Sen has done to the country in the past few decades. However, it includes some numbers that must unsettle Hun Sen. It says about 2 million people may turn up to welcome Sam Rainsy’s return. It is now clear why Hun Sen, who is a fervent betting man, ignores a proposed wager on a 2 million turnout. The estimate is about two-thirds of votes the CNRP receives in 2013 and 2017 elections.
Perhaps the numbers that drive Hun Sen into the violence overdrive are the information algorithms indicating that it is 98% certain that there will be a popular uprising, and the probability of Hun Sen bringing it under control is less than 1%.
The inability to control the uprising underlines armed forces cohesion, or lack of it, which is also addressed in the leaked information. It claims 65% of the armed forces would give heed to Sam Rainsy’s appeal for a mutiny, which leaves only 35% to Hun Sen.
It is uncertain how the divide has first come about, but it is likely to be perpetuated, if not exacerbated, by recent restructuring of the armed forces and Hun Sen’s reactions to the divide. First, Hun Sen’s fast promotion of his son Manet to a military top job may agitate many generals, especially those who lose out in the restructure and those who doubt Manet’s suitability. Second, a recent strip of Oknha title from numerous generals is a severe slap in the face in a regime that glorifies titles. Third, Hun Sen repeatedly threatens his generals their wealth is closely linked to him being in power. If he is gone, so will their riches. He may again demand all armed forces swear allegiance to him.
Anyhow, with the divide and the coming 9/11 challenge, Hun Sen has again instilled fear throughout the country. It is a portent that he fails to realise his fear card is consistently proved ineffective. Otherwise, nobody would now challenge his authority.
Yet, Hun Sen’s fortune can still be rescued, should Sam Rainsy lose his nerve and retire in Paris.
Source / ប្រភព : pseng-pseng.blogspot.com