០៣ សីហា ២០២២ / 03 August 2022
https://asia.nikkei.com/.../ASEAN-s-impotence-in-Myanmar...
Nikkei Asia Review, 03 August 2022
ASEAN'S IMPOTENCE IN MYANMAR CAN BE TRACED TO HUN SEN
By Sam Rainsy
The 54 million people of Myanmar need the support of their ASEAN neighbors. With Cambodia as the bloc's chair, they are not getting it.
The military regime which seized power in Myanmar in February 2021 has now killed at least 2,092 people, including four democracy activists who were executed last week after a trial behind closed doors. This marked the first official use of capital punishment in the country since at least 1988, according to the U.N.
There are more than 11,000 political prisoners now in Myanmar, more than at any time in the country's history. At least 1 million people have been displaced internally since the military takeover.
The five-point peace plan adopted by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations two months after the overthrow of Myanmar's democratically elected government has had little impact.
Indeed, Malaysian Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah said last week's executions made a "mockery" of ASEAN's attempts to ease the conflict, noting they took place days ahead of gatherings of the group's top diplomats. The timing appears to have been intended to demonstrate to the world that ASEAN has no influence over the regime.
Behind ASEAN's impotence is Cambodian leader Hun Sen, the broker of dictatorship in the region, its spokesman, its longest-serving practitioner, its teacher and trusted guide.
Hun Sen has proudly flouted impunity for the political assassinations and political repression, which helped embolden Myanmar's military to seize power. He obediently serves China, whose military expansionism threatens to destabilize the region.
As chair of ASEAN, neither Hun Sen nor his envoys have met with jailed National League for Democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Neither have they met with any representatives of the shadow National Unity Government established in April, despite its evident support from much of the population.
Myanmar nationals living in Thailand hold pictures of deposed Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi as they protest outside the country's embassy in Bangkok on July 26.
Even major Western oil producers such as Chevron and TotalEnergies, which are usually willing to seek oil almost anywhere, have pulled out of Myanmar.
Hun Sen's response to the problem of Myanmar has been to wait for it to go away. In February, he noted that there were only 10 and a half months left in Cambodia's yearlong run as ASEAN chair. Perhaps the next chair would be able to take care of the issue. "Just let it be," he told an audience which included Japanese Ambassador Masahiro Mikami.
Such messages have sent a demoralizing signal to the people of Myanmar and let down more constructive voices within ASEAN.
An authoritarian core of countries within the association has long used the doctrine of noninterference as carte blanche to carry out internal repression without fear of regional censure. The military takeover in Myanmar has exposed this self-interested deception for the whole international community to see.
Many of the tactics employed by the military regime were previously used by Hun Sen, who has ruled Cambodia since 1985. Elections interspersed with violent intimidation have been his tools for persuading the international community that his regime is legitimate.
In both Myanmar and Cambodia, democratically elected politicians have been imprisoned or exiled. The kind of fake election which took place in Cambodia in 2018, when the ruling party won every seat after banning all real opposition, is expected to take place soon in Myanmar.
The only real difference between the two is that Cambodia's coup was constitutional rather than military. Today, Hun Sen is mainly useful to the Myanmar regime as a conduit to seek international legitimacy. They know that Cambodia's leader is weak enough for them to manipulate.
The consolidation of the military takeover in Myanmar this year has taken place in the context of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The close ties which have developed between Russia and Myanmar show how the world is becoming polarized again between authoritarian states and those which defend democracy and freedom.
Russian fighter jets arrived in Myanmar in March, and the military has said that Russia and China are playing a central part in its air-defense systems. Amnesty International has reported that Russian and Chinese jets have been used by the regime in airstrikes on civilian areas. Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, the regime's head, himself traveled to Russia in July to discuss further military cooperation.
Hun Sen's preferred method of operating historically has been to intimidate, exile or kill domestic opponents while making carefully timed minor concessions on democracy and human rights to stifle the response of the international community. This comfort zone, in which the world is invited to believe that gradual progress is taking place in Cambodia, has now disappeared.
Even Russia has not dared to go as far as Hun Sen and completely disregard the will of the Myanmar people. Moscow has avoided giving formal recognition to the military regime and has allowed the ambassador dispatched by the democratically elected government to keep his seat at the U.N.
The international community needs to make isolating Myanmar's military regime as urgent a task as the isolation of Putin's Russia. Hun Sen deserves to join them as a pariah until he returns to the path of genuine elections.
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