១៨ សីហា ២០២៣ / 18 August 2023
ខាងក្រោមនេះ គឺជាការបកប្រែសង្ខេប ជាខ្មែរ នៃអត្ថបទលោក សម រង្ស៊ី ជាភាសាអង់គ្លេស ដែលមានចុះផ្សាយក្នុងសារព័ត៌មានជប៉ុនដ៏ល្បីល្បាញ ឈ្មោះ Nikkei ថ្ងៃ ១៨ សីហា ២០២៣។
ពី ហ៊ុន សែន ទៅ ហ៊ុន ម៉ាណែត គ្មានខុសគ្នាអ្វីទេ។
លោក ហ៊ុន ម៉ាណែត មិនអាចរើបម្រះចេញពីប្រព័ន្ធផ្តាច់ការ និងពុករលួយ ដែលឪពុកគាត់លោក ហ៊ុន សែន បានរៀបចំបន្សល់ទុកឲ្យគាត់។ បើប្តូរតែមនុស្សទេ តែមិនប្តូរប្រព័ន្ធគ្រប់គ្រងប្រទេសទេ គ្មានអ្វីអាចគ្រាន់បើជាងមុនទេ។
របប ហ៊ុន សែន សព្វថ្ងៃ គឺជារបបខ្មែរក្រហមជំនាន់ថ្មី (Neo-Khmer Rouge regime) ដែលធ្វើឲ្យប្រជាពលរដ្ឋ នៅតែ ខ្លាច ឃ្លាន ខ្លៅ។ របបនេះ ក៏បានយកលក្ខណៈសំខាន់ ពីរបបផ្តាច់ការហ្វាស៊ីស (Fascist) ផងដែរ ដូចជាការប្លន់ទ្រព្យសម្បត្តិរដ្ឋ យកមកធ្វើជាទ្រព្យសម្បត្តិឯកជន, ការធ្វើបាបកម្មករ និងការយកស្តេចអាយ៉ង មកប្រើ ដើម្បីប្រថាប់ត្រា ឲ្យជនផ្តាច់ការ។
ការអភិវឌ្ឍន៍ប្រទេស ជាការអភិវឌ្ឍន៍ក្លែងក្លាយ ពីព្រោះមិនបានធ្វើឲ្យចំណេញអ្វី ដល់ប្រជារាស្រ្តក្រីក្រឡើយ។
មានបាតុភូត ២ យ៉ាង ដែលមិនដែលមានពីមុនមក ហើយដែលបង្ហាញពីការឈឺចាប់របស់ប្រជារាស្រ្ត ៖
១- ពលរដ្ឋរាប់លាននាក់ គ្មានមធ្យោបាយរស់នៅ លើទឹកដីកំណើតរបស់ខ្លួន ហើយត្រូវបង្ខំចិត្តចំណាកស្រុក ទៅស៊ីឈ្នួលគេ នៅប្រទេសជិតខាង ដើម្បីគ្រាន់តែកុំឲ្យដាច់ពោះ។
២- ពលរដ្ឋរាប់លានគ្រួសារ ទូទាំងប្រទេស ជំពាក់លុយធនាគារ និងគ្រឹះស្ថានមីក្រូហិរញ្ញវត្ថុ វ័ណ្ឌក មិនអាចរើខ្លួនរួច ដោយសារតែប្រាក់ចំណូលធ្លាក់ចុះ ហើយរដ្ឋអំណាចអសមត្ថភាព និងពុករលួយ មិនមើលខុសត្រូវអ្វីឡើយ។
ក្នុងវិស័យអន្តរជាតិ លោក ហ៊ុន សែន ក៏កំពុងដើរតាមមាគា៌ លោក ប៉ុល ពត អញ្ចឹងដែរ ដោយយកប្រទេសកម្ពុជា ធ្វើជារណបប្រទេសចិន។ នយោបាយការបរទេសបែបនេះ គ្រោះថ្នាក់ណាស់ ពីព្រោះប្រទេសចិន យកប្រទេសកម្ពុជា ធ្វើជាឈ្នាន់ ដើម្បីវាតទី លើដែនដី និងដែនសមុទ្រ របស់ប្រទេសជិតខាង ក្នុងតំបន់យើង។
គោលនយោបាយ ទាំងក្នុងប្រទេស ទាំងក្រៅប្រទេស ដូចបានបញ្ជាក់ខាងលើ ត្រូវបានលោក ហ៊ុន សែន កំណត់រួចអស់ហើយ ហើយលោក ហ៊ុន ម៉ាណែត គ្មានជម្រើសអ្វី ក្រៅពីអនុវត្តគោលនយោបាយទាំងនោះទេ។
ដោយសារតែកម្ពុជា យកគម្រូបន្តវេន តាមប្រទេសស៊ីរី គឺឪពុកផ្ទេរអំណាចឲ្យទៅកូន ស្ថានការណ៍នឹងកាន់តែយ៉ាប់យ៉ឺនទៅៗ ដរាបណាមិនប្តូរប្រព័ន្ធគ្រប់គ្រងប្រទេសទេ។ ក្នុងករណីប្រទេសទាំង ២ កូនបានរៀនសូត្រចេះដឹងជាងឪពុក តែគ្មានធ្វើអ្វីកើតទេ ដោយសារតែមិនអាចប៉ះពាល់ ប្រព័ន្ធដែលឪពុក បានរៀបចំទុកឲ្យ។
ក្រោមការដឹកនាំសព្វថ្ងៃ របស់កូនឈ្មោះ Bashar al-Assad របបនៅប្រទេសស៊ីរី ផ្តាច់ការ សាហាវ និងពុករលួយ ជាងក្រោមការដឹកនាំរបស់ឪពុកឈ្មោះ Hafez Al-Assad ទៅទៀត កាលពីប្រមាណ ២០ ឆ្នាំមុន។ កូនឈ្មោះ Bashar al-Assad បានទៅរៀននៅសកលវិទ្យាល័យ ប្រទេសអង់គ្លេស ហើយបានទទួលសញ្ញាប័ត្រ ជាវេជ្ជបណ្ឌិត តែសព្វថ្ងៃ គាត់ជាមេដឹកនាំអាក្រក់ជាងឪពុកគាត់ ទៅទៀត។
Nikkei Asia
August 18, 2023
NEW PRIME MINISTER IS NOT A FRESH START FOR CAMBODIA
Hopes that Hun Manet will reform system Hun Sen built are illusory
By Sam Rainsy
Cambodia will reach a milestone next week as Prime Minister Hun Sen hands over the position he has held for 38 years to his son Hun Manet upon formal confirmation by the rubber stamp National Assembly.
Hun Sen has received considerable credit for bringing peace and economic development to Cambodia. The 15 years before he took office were marked by the overthrow of the country's monarchy by pro-U.S. Gen. Lon Nol, spillover from the Vietnam War, genocidal massacres by Pol Pot's Khmer Rouge regime, invasion and occupation by Vietnamese troops, and finally a civil war that involved regional and global powers.
But Hun Sen has taken undue credit for the return of peace with the 1991 Paris Peace Agreements, obscuring the decisive role in national reconciliation played by late King Norodom Sihanouk.
The focus on Hun Sen also ignores the fact that the peace process was facilitated by the end of the Cold War and the collapse of communism in Europe, developments that diminished Soviet support for Vietnam's occupation of Cambodia. As for China, which had supported Khmer Rouge guerrillas resisting the Vietnamese, it lost its reason to prop up Pol Pot. The war was bound to cease due to the departure of its sponsors.
Cambodia has experienced noticeable economic development over the past 30 years, but anything less would have been surprising.
Firstly, the country, which had been practically reduced to ashes by war and massacres, was starting from a very low point. Furthermore, Cambodia received a large infusion of international aid as the Paris accords included a significant "reconstruction" component funded by major global donors. More recently, China has provided massive loans. So money has not been lacking.
Over the past three decades, annual economic growth in Cambodia has averaged 6% to 7%. This, though, is merely in line with the performance of neighboring countries like Vietnam.
More importantly, the quality of growth has left much to be desired. The main drivers of Cambodia's haphazard growth have been deforestation, real estate speculation, casinos and money laundering, as well as prostitution and other forms of human trafficking.
Hun Sen and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing in 2019: Cambodia's alliance with China is vital and irreplaceable in terms of political, diplomatic, financial and military support. (Pool via Reuters)
How can one speak of sustainability when natural resources are disappearing rapidly and the country's social fabric is being dangerously torn?
How can one speak of equity when this growth, deeply interlaced with corruption, has primarily benefited a small political and financial elite gathered around the family of Hun Sen, and has worsened inequality and social injustice?
While official statistics indicate that Cambodia's unemployment rate is less than 1%, over two million young Cambodians -- or about 20% of the potential workforce -- has emigrated to become migrant workers in Thailand and other countries despite precarious conditions in their new abodes.
Such massive transnational migration for economic survival has never occurred before in Cambodia. Another survival strategy has been to borrow from microlenders; as of 2019, Cambodians carried more microloan debt on average than residents of any other country.
As a former Khmer Rouge military commander, Hun Sen has maintained the mindset that prevailed under Pol Pot, basing his rule on a triad of fear, hunger and ignorance. The logic of controlling the population has remained the same even if the methods used are less intense.
A police state permeates, controls and terrorizes the public, often using violent methods. At the same time, hunger keeps the poor economically and even nutritionally dependent on the ruling party, whose "donations" to the public are contingent on political obedience. Meanwhile, a lack of objective and diversified information due to the forced closure of independent media has made it easier to subject the population to obscurantist, partisan propaganda.
This neo-Khmer Rouge regime has exhibited fascist tendencies, with an all-powerful leader who is the subject of a cult of personality, a wild form of capitalism in which the biggest fortunes are tied to political power, bloody repression of the opposition, direct assaults on labor unions, a silent and complicit puppet king, and an intimidated and opportunistic clergy whose religious leaders willingly accommodate the regime.
Hun Manet will not change anything. As long as Hun Sen remains alive and continues to pull the strings as head of the ruling Cambodian People's Party, expecting any kind of liberalization from the neo-Khmer Rouge regime he established is pointless. Hun Manet is a prisoner of the existing system.
As long as this system remains in place, a change of prime minister will not alter much, regardless of Hun Manet's Western education.
Recall the hopes raised in Syria when President Hafez al-Assad was succeeded by his son Bashar al-Assad in 2000. Some thought the son would represent a new, more educated and open generation. But as the system remained the same, these hopes quickly dissipated, as the son proved worse than the father in terms of human rights violations and a willingness to ignore Western pressure.
Cambodia's current system is based on political and police repression and cannot afford any opening that would risk letting voices of dissent spread across the country. The increasingly violent repression seen in recent years is a desperate move, but Hun Manet has little choice other than to follow in Hun Sen's footsteps.
Externally, there will be little change either because the government's alliance with China is vital and irreplaceable in terms of political, diplomatic, financial and military support. In fact, the strategic alliance with China has become existential for the Hun Sen regime.
For China, a subservient Cambodia that provides a military stronghold and a dependent outpost in Southeast Asia is a fundamental strategic achievement in the global expansion of Beijing's power. This will not change as long as the Hun Sen regime endures.
The West must not harbor illusions about detaching the Hun Sen regime from China and bringing Cambodia back to the path of independence and neutrality as intended by the 1991 Paris accords. Chasing this mirage only leads the West and its allies to waste precious time that could be better used to define a realistic and effective strategy to defend their interests and security. Cambodia will not change its stripes until Hun Sen and his family are out of power.
Ends
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